Description

This analysis provides a forecast of SOL prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-01-19 1.382814e-03 0.001549 0.001717 0.001899 0.002090 0.002285 0.002496
2025-01-26 1.109558e-03 0.001347 0.001595 0.001871 0.002170 0.002480 0.002826
2025-02-02 8.968693e-04 0.001183 0.001493 0.001849 0.002242 0.002659 0.003131
2025-02-09 7.879765e-04 0.001120 0.001491 0.001928 0.002419 0.002948 0.003554
2025-02-16 6.540960e-04 0.001014 0.001431 0.001933 0.002508 0.003137 0.003867
2025-02-23 5.002612e-04 0.000867 0.001310 0.001860 0.002502 0.003215 0.004053
2025-03-02 3.776391e-04 0.000744 0.001207 0.001797 0.002501 0.003294 0.004234
2025-03-09 2.814149e-04 0.000641 0.001119 0.001746 0.002509 0.003377 0.004418
2025-03-16 2.119742e-04 0.000565 0.001059 0.001723 0.002543 0.003489 0.004631
2025-03-23 1.831975e-04 0.000546 0.001070 0.001787 0.002683 0.003721 0.004981
2025-03-30 1.431287e-04 0.000502 0.001043 0.001800 0.002757 0.003875 0.005240
2025-04-06 1.076418e-04 0.000457 0.001012 0.001805 0.002819 0.004013 0.005479
2025-04-13 5.393668e-05 0.000368 0.000923 0.001749 0.002830 0.004120 0.005719
2025-04-20 2.300014e-05 0.000306 0.000867 0.001736 0.002894 0.004293 0.006040
2025-04-27 5.119930e-06 0.000250 0.000814 0.001723 0.002958 0.004467 0.006364
2025-05-04 9.497839e-07 0.000236 0.000829 0.001805 0.003147 0.004794 0.006872
2025-05-11 NaN 0.000197 0.000794 0.001814 0.003238 0.005002 0.007240
2025-05-18 NaN 0.000140 0.000712 0.001746 0.003224 0.005077 0.007447
2025-05-25 NaN 0.000095 0.000640 0.001687 0.003218 0.005160 0.007661
2025-06-01 NaN 0.000062 0.000579 0.001639 0.003223 0.005255 0.007889
2025-06-08 NaN 0.000040 0.000536 0.001617 0.003261 0.005390 0.008163
2025-06-15 NaN 0.000035 0.000545 0.001680 0.003419 0.005677 0.008624
2025-06-22 NaN 0.000024 0.000525 0.001693 0.003504 0.005870 0.008969